Deutsche Bank of Germany has released 10 major risk is considered one of the world economy in 12 months.
1. Greece withdrew from the Euro
Ability: Greece may withdraw from the euro and return to the drachma. This capability is not high bet Deutsche Bank, but not for the impossible happen.
What can happen: The value of the assets of the private sector declined, the capital control measures are applied, the Greek bank system collapsed, the European bank for small present state of massive capital withdrawal.
Precautions: About Deutsche Bank investment recommendations from holding assets in Europe to hold gold or U.S. Treasury bonds, speculation on the currency as the price of Japanese Yen or British Pound, head of the long limit on the securities in the index volatility (volatility index).
2. Funding crisis in Italy and Spain
Factors to consider: In Spain, the private sector and the banking system, in Italy the political and economic growth.
What can happen: A crisis of confidence that both countries will face major difficulties in accessing capital sources of cash. This would threaten both the euro and the global financial system. European Central Bank (ECB) will have to be drastic action to save the global economy from collapse.
Precautions: You do not share the French and British banks, short-selling the currencies of Eastern Europe ...
3. U.S. credit downgraded or dropped into a double dip
Catalytic factors: Risk No. 1 or No. 2 in the reality, the fiscal measures to reduce frustration, or low economic growth.
What can happen: the U.S. banking sector could also be downgraded credit. Factors will determine the time of the impact of this risk.
Precautions: The prevention of release of property by preparing before the funds, investors should increase holdings of non-financial assets or assets not cyclical appreciated.
4. China's economic "hard landing"
This risk occurs like: China economy to grow 5-6%, growth was seen as "recession" in this economy.
What will happen: the global capital markets will be affected by the sharp decline of commodity prices. However, the huge foreign exchange reserves of China can be of much help in halting the decline and stimulate growth.
5. France lost credibility rating AAA
Skills: Quite likely, considering the French have not achieved much progress in tightening spending.
When this risk can occur: The gap between the interests of French bonds and German bonds, bonds are considered "standard" in Europe would have found that this risk has been reflected in French bond prices.However, the risk of lowering the prestige of France can still cause adverse effects to the Financial Stabilization Fund Europe (EFSF) and put pressure on Paris to raise funds.
Precautions: Buy the insurance contract bonds possibility of default (CDS) of France ...
6. Banks push Europe to cut debt (deleveraging) concern the possible risks due to high debt levels.
Ability: The reduction of debt is certainly to be held at the European banks, led to the restrictions on capital and investment activities. The problem is that the bank would cut how much debt levels.
What happens: The amount of debt that European banks may cut up to 2,000 billion over the next 18 months. This number may be greater if more intense crisis.
7. Financial resources for basic goods market will be tight
Skills: Very likely to occur, especially if the 6 risk becoming reality.
What happens: The European banks to provide funds for the commodity trading company based in Switzerland large can cut capital and commodity prices will plummet.
Precautions: The loan company in Europe to seek capital in the U.S..
8. The lost property safe position
These signs need to be cautious: The traditional safe haven like gold, the Swiss franc and yen fluctuate sharply over time.
Worse: U.S. government bonds and Germany became the attraction of capital assets in recent times. But excessively high debt levels of U.S. and Germany can make real changes.
Precautions: The bonds are AAA grade credit ratings by international institutions issued.
9. Deficit of U.S. pension funds continue to swell
This risk occurs like: pension fund deficit in the public sector and private sector in the U.S. beyond its control.Ultra-low interest rates in the U.S. today do every time a situation worse.
What will happen: Reputation dropped, profits go down to business, capital crisis erupted.
10. Economic growth is expected to be better
Rather, it should be considered as a potential surprise rather than a risk. The set comes with the risk of always having the ability to surprise.
What can happen: the European situation stabilized, global economic growth, asset prices exceed the expected risks.
According vneconomy
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